As U.S. e-commerce demand falters, air cargo operators confront a reshaped supply chain—China out, Southeast Asia in.
Weak U.S. demand, new tariffs, and Southeast Asia’s rise are reshaping the global freight map—faster than most brands are ready for.
Ecommerce airfreight to the U.S. is officially in a slump
The post-pandemic ecomm glow-up is over. The freight hangover has arrived.
According to Dimerco’s April Freight Market Report, weak U.S.-bound ecommerce demand is forcing airlines to cancel block space agreements (BSAs) and charters. The surge in airfreight volumes during early March? Just a short-lived quarter-end push. Now? We’re back to a soft market and too much capacity.
And it’s not just air. With new U.S. tariffs on Chinese-built vessels kicking in, ocean carriers are redrawing the map—and fast.
The catch: Supply chains are shifting—again
China’s once-dominant position in global sourcing is getting kneecapped by tariffs, regulation, and good old-fashioned cost-cutting. Southeast Asia is hoovering up manufacturing at a clip, especially Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.
🔹 Intra-Asia airfreight is still strong thanks to parts/raw materials trade
🔹 TPEB (Trans-Pacific Eastbound) volumes surged mid-March but fizzled quickly
🔹 Rates from China to the U.S. are bouncing around but trending soft
🔹 Carriers are reallocating capacity to more profitable, in-demand Southeast Asia lanes
As Peter Lin, VP of Ocean Freight at Dimerco, put it:
“We’re seeing a fundamental shift in how vessels are deployed… congestion and intermodal costs could spike.”
Operator POV: What this means for your Q2 logistics
If you’re running an ecomm brand or handling ops, here’s what you need to know right now:
1. Forget long-term freight contracts—for now
Tariff whiplash and volume volatility have killed predictability. Most shippers are going short-term. Unless you’re locked into tight SLAs, keep things flexible.
2. Pre-book like your margins depend on it
Even with soft demand, lanes are still tight—especially around holidays like Songkran (Thailand, mid-April) and durian season (South China–Thailand). Book 2–4 weeks out minimum for U.S.-bound freight.
3. Watch Southeast Asia like a hawk
This is the new power lane. Intra-Asia trade is booming, but infrastructure’s creaking. Expect more delays, fluctuating rates, and bottlenecks in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand.
4. Be tariff-smart, not tariff-slow
U.S. importers sitting on their hands waiting for the next Trump tariff move are playing a dangerous game. Use freight forwarders with actual geopolitical intel—not just rate sheets.
Regional quick hits 🚨
🔻 Taiwan: High-tech exports still flowing, but U.S. demand is down 30% YoY
📉 China (East & South): Stable, but uninspired. Rates fluctuating post-Ramadan
📈 Hong Kong: Alternate customs forms = temporary workaround for U.S. ecomm
📊 South Korea: Space tight, book early—especially to Southeast Asia
🎯 Mexico: China–Mexico airfreight is heating up; book 2–4 days ahead
🚢 Europe: Rotterdam is a mess; carriers are rerouting via Hamburg and Antwerp
🇺🇸 U.S. Ports: LA and Chicago are prepping for summer demand—but demand ain’t there yet
So what?
Soft demand + tariff roulette + sourcing shifts = a freight market that’s wildly out of sync with brand calendars and inventory planning.
For ecommerce operators, the key moves are:
- Stay nimble with contracts
- Front-load shipments before demand spikes or ports jam up
- Diversify sourcing (Southeast Asia is looking pretty good right about now)
- Keep a sharp eye on tariff policy, not just rates
The bottom line: You can’t run a 2025 ecommerce operation on a 2019 logistics playbook. The lanes are changing, and so is the game.
