Amazon still owns the bulk of retail media dollars — but adaptability, not size, is defining who survives the sector’s shakeout.
Retail media is hitting its ‘adapt or die’ moment — and flexibility, not volume, will decide who survives.
Amazon owns the dollars, but others are finally owning the margins
Amazon’s got a chokehold on total retail media ad spend — no shocker there. In 2025, it’ll take home 76.7% of the entire US retail media pie, according to eMarketer. But if you zoom in on ad spend as a % of ecommerce sales, the gap shrinks — Amazon at 9.0%, Walmart at 4.8%, Etsy at 4.7%. The rest of the pack isn’t dead. They’re just done playing Amazon’s game.
Why? Because the game just changed — and not by choice.
The catch: tariffs, DSTs, and chaos demand flexibility
Retail media was built for growth. Now it’s being rebuilt for risk. As Digiday reports, the ad world is stuck in an economic whack-a-mole: 90-day tariff pauses, a 125% tax on Chinese imports still live, digital services taxes in flux — and no one knows what next quarter looks like.
Result? Long-term JBPs are out. Short-cycle, inventory-tied media buys are in.
“We’re actively shifting their media posture more towards conquesting to steal share from struggling competitors.” – Mark Barker, Craft & Commerce
Media plans aren’t being written in stone — they’re being penciled in with an eraser in hand. And only the nimble survive.
Operator POV: This is the RMN shakeout moment
Retail media used to be a playground for big platforms. Now it’s a battleground. The shift to flexible, performance-driven buying means smaller players with tighter feedback loops and smarter attribution can finally punch above their weight.
- Onsite RMNs scale faster and offer better ROAS visibility, especially with AI-led self-serve tools like Mirakl Ads.
- Retailers like Kroger are already seeing $14 in total sales for every $1 of onsite retail media spend, according to Progressive Grocer.
- In-store RMNs are booming, too — but only as a complement to a strong digital foundation. Anyone leading with digital signage over digital attribution is driving blind.
Why this matters: retail media is consolidating — fast
There are 200+ retail media networks. Advertisers don’t want to manage more than six. AdExchanger says it plainly: this market is about to consolidate hard.
“Marketers aren’t just pausing spend — they’re interrogating it.” – Dan Eisenberg, Blue Chip
That’s why incrementality is the new gold standard. Not clicks. Not reach. Real-world impact that can be tied to actual sales and new shoppers. Cut-rate ROAS gaming won’t cut it anymore.
Retail Media Power Shift: Volume vs. Efficiency
| Retailer | Share of US RMN Ad Spend (2025 est.) | Ad Spend as % of Ecommerce Sales | Narrative Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | 76.7% | 9.0% | Volume king, vulnerable to churn |
| Walmart | ~7.0% | 4.8% | Catching up with in-store leverage |
| Etsy | <1.0% | 4.7% | Lean, high-efficiency contender |
| Kroger | N/A (smaller share) | N/A | Punching up with $14:1 ROAS |
| Others (200+ RMNs) | ~15% total | Varies | Facing consolidation pressure |
So what: Amazon is still the king, but the kingdom is fracturing
Amazon might control the volume, but it doesn’t control the volatility. That’s what’ll define retail media’s next era. The future belongs to platforms that:
- Move fast and pivot faster 🏃♂️
- Prove true incrementality 🔍
- Serve both the giants and the long tail 📊
- Connect digital with in-store for full-funnel wins 🛍️
The RMN gold rush isn’t over. But the shovel sellers are changing. And if you’re a mid-size player with strong first-party data, flexible media options, and attribution that doesn’t suck — now is your time to eat.
