US tariffs, de minimis reform, and market chaos are gutting China-to-US shipments.

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When ecommerce sneezes, global logistics catches the flu. Right now? China’s cargo freighters are flat on their back.

Freight forwarder Dimerco just dropped the hammer: major China-US cargo charters are getting axed. By the end of April 2025, waves of cancellations hit, and the cutbacks are only accelerating.

The reason? A double whammy:

• Tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports to the US
• The May 2 end of the de minimis exemption that let China flood the US with duty-free small parcels

As Dimerco bluntly put it, ecommerce shipment volume from China has cratered 50% since mid-April compared to 2024.

The catch: Capacity is vanishing

It’s not just small players pulling out — even air cargo giants like Air China, China Cargo Airlines, and China Southern Airlines are “strongly considering” full-on cancellations of China-US freighter routes.

If they follow through? Already limited cargo space will get even tighter, and ecommerce operators still shipping cross-border will get steamrolled by capacity shortages and soaring spot rates.

Key casualties:

• Charter flights from China rerouted to Mexico (especially Nuevo Laredo) ✈️
• Ecommerce platforms suspending shipments under T86 classification
• Asian hubs (Taiwan, Vietnam) barely holding steady under US tariff exemptions

Why it matters: Mexico is the new China (for now)

While China gets hammered, Latin America — especially Mexico — is booming. Shippers are rerouting freight to Mexico to sidestep tariffs, aided by friendly terms under the USMCA.

Meanwhile, demand from Southeast Asia and Taiwan to the US is stabilizing, thanks to a temporary 90-day tariff exemption. Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, and Japan are all picking up slack:

• Vietnam-US exports: +42%
• Taiwan-US exports: +30%
• Thailand-US exports: +24%
• Japan-US exports: +12%

(WorldACD data)

Translation: Operators who diversified sourcing away from China early are now the ones staying alive.

Operator POV: What ecommerce pros need to know

• Plan around limited air freight space: Pre-book shipments two weeks out minimum.
• Shift fulfillment models: If you’re still reliant on China-to-US small parcel, you’re toast. Move into LATAM-based fulfillment centers or hybrid models.
• Rethink supply chain geography: Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan aren’t “Plan B” anymore. They’re the main event.
• Brace for higher costs: Scarcity = price hikes. Factor it into your landed cost modeling ASAP.
• Stay close to policy shifts: Watch for potential Section 232 tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals next, plus noise around Manifest Modernization.

The bigger play: Saudi Arabia steps in

As China’s direct-to-US shipments crumble, new cargo routes are emerging. Saudi Arabia’s Saudia Cargo and China Cargo Airlines just inked a strategic MoU to connect China to the Middle East, tying into Saudi Vision 2030 and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

New alliances like this will keep China plugged into global supply chains — but just not as dominantly into the US market.

So what?

If your ecommerce playbook still says “source from China, ship direct to US customers,” you are playing 2022’s game in 2025.

Tariffs, regulatory reform, and geopolitical realignment are now baked into ecommerce logistics. The smart operators aren’t panicking — they’re already pivoting.