From smartphones to sofas, tariffs are forcing U.S. shoppers—and brands—to rethink every click.
Tariffs and trade tensions are cooling category growth, forcing brands to rethink sourcing and pricing
The U.S. ecommerce boom just hit a speed bump—and it’s coming straight from the tariff playbook.
According to a new survey from AlixPartners, online shopping for home delivery is seeing its sharpest slowdown in over a decade, as President Trump’s trade policies and escalating tariffs ripple through consumer behavior.
Online category growth stalls across the board
It’s not just a blip. The AlixPartners survey, conducted between May 31 and June 3, shows double-digit percentage drops in online purchases across nearly every major product category. The survey compares consumer behavior and category performance for home delivery in 2025 versus the same period in 2024:
- Office supplies: down 13 percentage points
- Sporting goods: down 12 points
- Cosmetics, furniture, home furnishings, large electronics: each down 10 points
- Mobile phones and jewelry: down 8 points
- Pet supplies, takeout delivery, and small appliances: down 7 points
The only category holding firm? Groceries, steady at 62% of U.S. adults still ordering food online—proof that convenience and necessity can outrun macro headwinds, at least for now.
| tegory | 2024 % Ordered | 2025 % Ordered | Change (percentage points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Office supplies | 37% | 24% | -13 pts |
| Sporting goods | 30% | 18% | -12 pts |
| Cosmetics | 44% | 34% | -10 pts |
| Furniture | 28% | 18% | -10 pts |
| Home furnishings | 28% | 18% | -10 pts |
| Large electronics | 25% | 15% | -10 pts |
| Mobile phones | 29% | 21% | -8 pts |
| Jewelry & watches | 28% | 20% | -8 pts |
| Pet supplies | 53% | 46% | -7 pts |
| Takeout / restaurant delivery | 50% | 43% | -7 pts |
| Small appliances | 35% | 28% | -7 pts |
| Home improvement & hardware | 32% | 25% | -7 pts |
| Gift cards | 31% | 24% | -7 pts |
| Large appliances | 22% | 15% | -7 pts |
| Photos | 20% | 13% | -7 pts |
| Small electronics & accessories | 34% | 28% | -6 pts |
| Apparel & footwear | 62% | 58% | -4 pts |
| Cleaning supplies | 53% | 49% | -4 pts |
| Health & medical supplies | 46% | 42% | -4 pts |
| Books & media | 38% | 34% | -4 pts |
| Auto parts | 20% | 18% | -2 pts |
| Groceries | 62% | 62% | 0 pts (flat) |
Quick takeaway:
- Nearly all categories saw double-digit or mid-single-digit declines
- Groceries are the outlier, holding steady at 62%
- Biggest drops: Office supplies, sporting goods, cosmetics, furniture
Tariffs are shifting consumer behavior fast
This isn’t just price sensitivity—it’s a broader realignment. The data shows:
- 66% of consumers will look for domestic alternatives if overseas prices rise 10%
- 34% are delaying purchases due to price uncertainty
- 28% made early buys to avoid potential tariff hikes
- A noticeable 20% say they’re now prioritizing “Buy American”
As Newsweek reports, tariffs are materially reshaping how shoppers spend, and retailers are scrambling to adjust.
“Tariffs are influencing both timing shifts and a potential reshoring of demand,” said Chris Considine, a partner in AlixPartners’ retail practice.
Operators face margin pressure and delivery headaches
It’s not just demand cooling—logistics and returns are tightening too:
- Nearly three-quarters of retail executives report higher per-package delivery costs
- Many are raising minimums for free shipping or requiring memberships
- Returns are rising, prompting stricter in-store return policies
As covered in our recent deep dive on cross-border chaos, brands relying on international sourcing—especially from China, Cambodia, or Vietnam—are seeing profit erosion accelerate.
The new reality? Even a $20 widget drop-shipped from Asia could land in customs purgatory.
Global slowdown meets local resilience
Despite the U.S. category slowdown, global ecommerce is still projected to grow, albeit at the slowest pace since 2022. eMarketer forecasts 6.8% growth this year, with ecommerce making up 20.5% of worldwide retail sales.
But much of that growth is uneven, with North America still dominating thanks to tech infrastructure, AI-driven logistics, and platforms like Amazon, Walmart, and Shopify fueling same-day delivery.
What operators need to do now
In this tariff-driven landscape, survival means adapting:
- Reassess sourcing: Domestic and nearshore options reduce tariff risk
- Revamp pricing models: Build in flexibility for cost spikes
- Communicate clearly: Consumers value transparency on pricing and sourcing
- Optimize logistics: Last-mile cost control is now mission critical
Brands leaning on old 2019-era playbooks will struggle. But those pivoting to domestic production, USMCA advantages, and value-based fulfillment can stay ahead.
The takeaway
The ecommerce slowdown isn’t signaling collapse—it’s signaling evolution. Tariffs, sourcing shifts, and buyer caution are reshaping the digital shelf. Operators who adapt quickly will ride the next growth wave. Those who hesitate? They’ll be left holding unsold inventory and shrinking margins.
Welcome to the new era of tariff-tested ecommerce.
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