With tariff tensions on hold, ecommerce operators are racing against the clock to move goods before the 90-day truce expires.
90-day US-China tariff detente sets the stage for a short but explosive ecommerce comeback.
Ecommerce just got a 90-day green light. Now what?
The U.S. and China have hit the pause button on their tariff war. Starting Wednesday, both sides will reduce tariffs on each other’s goods to 10%—with a few lingering exceptions like fentanyl-related tariffs. China is also rolling back countermeasures like its export control list and rare metal restrictions.
That means ecommerce operators—especially those moving volume through air freight—are likely to be the first to test the waters. After months of sitting on inventory, tariff dodging, and sky-high uncertainty, the shipping lanes are opening back up. And ecommerce is leading the charge.
Why ecommerce is the first to bounce
📦 Air cargo is already spiking. According to Rotate data, capacity from China to the U.S. jumped 60% in just 24 hours. From the U.S. to China and Hong Kong, it’s up 35%. Even with steep de minimis penalties still applying to postal shipments, ecommerce moving via commercial freighters is roaring back. That follows a sharp collapse in air cargo capacity earlier this quarter as tariffs tightened and carriers blanked sailings.
📦 Price still beats tariffs. A Chinese logistics exec told The Loadstar: “Even with the 145% tariff, a lot of those products are still the cheapest around.” For low-cost consumer goods, there’s no domestic alternative. Tariff or not, Americans are clicking “Buy.” hat’s why despite policy shocks, Temu still saw demand even as it briefly blocked new U.S.-bound orders post-de minimis repeal.
📦 It’s peak season—ready or not. With the 90-day tariff window ending mid-August, ecommerce players are expected to frontload Q3 inventory. That means a compressed, high-pressure peak season starting now. Expect shipping rate volatility and freight space shortages as carriers scramble to un-blank sailings.
The inventory overhang might slow the start
Not every category will surge immediately. U.S. ports are already swimming in goods. The National Retail Federation reported imports were up 14.7% YoY in 2024, topping 25.5M TEU. Why? Retailers pre-loaded inventory ahead of a potential longshoreman strike and an expected tariff hike post-election.
So while ecommerce is nimble and air-first, broader categories like apparel, appliances, or durables might pause through Q2 to work through stockpiles.
John Manners-Bell of Ti sums it up: “Inventories will need to be drawn down before shipments ramp up ahead of the peak.”
Operator POV: watch the clock and move fast
Let’s be real: 90 days isn’t a long time in freight. This is a tactical window, not a long-term fix. But with election volatility ahead and Trump’s team now showing signs of coordination (“a plan, a process, a mechanism”), this could evolve into something more durable.
Until then, ecommerce pros should:
✅ Move fast if you sell low-cost goods: Air lanes are opening, demand is rising, and rates will follow.
✅ Watch capacity and book early: Short-term availability could get squeezed fast.
✅ Use the uncertainty: Competitors still “waiting and seeing” may lose speed.
And if the U.S. ends the fentanyl tariff soon, bringing all Chinese goods to 10%, the acceleration could go vertical.
This all follows months of rising ecommerce tension over de minimis loopholes and Trump tariffs, with platforms like Shein and Temu adjusting strategies mid-flight. The return of capacity—and consumer appetite—could be explosive if players move fast.
So what?
This isn’t a return to 2019, but it’s a reset window that ecommerce operators can exploit right now. Air freight is back, consumer demand is resilient, and cheap goods are still king. Just don’t assume the window stays open.
Because in ecommerce, speed eats strategy.
